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Prediction for CME (2024-01-22T10:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-01-22T10:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/28689/-1
CME Note: [PRELIMINARY] Wide CME with distinctive bright core (likely h-alpha emission) seen to the S/SE in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and after a data gap in STEREO A COR2 imagery. This CME is associated with a large filament eruption stretching from ~S45E10 to ~S20W20, centered around S35W10. The source eruption is best seen in SDO/AIA 304 starting around 2024-01-22T08:30Z. Associated dimming (SDO/AIA 193), brightening (SDO/AIA 304), and post-eruptive arcades (SDO/AIA 193, 171, and 211) are visible. The filament appears to deflect southward as it erupts. Possible arrival signature: a change in the solar wind pattern, with B total sharply increasing from under 3 nT to over 6nT, followed by another jump to just above 10nT around 14Z. There is also rotation of two magnetic field components, that after 14Z potentially resembles signature of a glancing blow/arrival of a flux rope.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-01-25T05:35Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-01-26T00:00Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 40.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2024-01-22T15:59Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 620
Longitude (deg): 19W
Latitude (deg): 35S
Half-angular width (deg): 39

Notes: 
Space weather advisor: Rebecca Spalton

Lead Time: 24.58 hour(s)
Difference: -18.42 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2024-01-24T05:00Z

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